Global EMBA Master Class | China's Economy: Historical Perspective and Future Outlook

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China's Economy: Historical Perspective and Future Outlook

China’s economy was the world’s largest in 1820, accounting for 30% of the global GDP. From that point, however, the country’s global economic share fell continuously and, in 1949, the year the People’s Republic of China (PRC) was founded, it dropped to 3% (or 5% by PPP measure). China’s economy did not grow much in the first 30 years of the PRC. However, after 1978, the country entered a period of rapid economic growth and its global economic share increased to 9% in 2010 (or 14% by PPP), making it the world’s second largest economy.

Since 2007, China’s economic growth has again steadily slowed down. More recently, its economy has been severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. At the same time, China faces fundamental challenges ranging from a rapidly aging population and the enormous risk accumulated in both the real estate and financial sectors to falling productivity growth and a worsening international environment. Against this background, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) held its 20th National Congress in October 2022 in which it set out a new roadmap for “China-style modernization” as announced by its top leader Xi Jinping.

In this talk, CEIBS Professor of Economics and Finance Xu Bin will examine China’s economy from a historical perspective and offer his views about its prospects for the future.


China’s economy in the context of world history

Economic path of the People’s Republic of China

China’s “New Era” and “China-style modernization”

Future outlook of China’s economy