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China's Economy: Historical Perspective and Future Outlook

China’s economy was the world’s largest in 1820, accounting for 30% of the global GDP. From that point, however, the country’s global economic share fell continuously and, in 1949, the year the People’s Republic of China (PRC) was founded, it dropped to 3% (or 5% by PPP measure). China’s economy did not grow much in the first 30 years of the PRC. However, after 1978, the country entered a period of rapid economic growth and its global economic share increased to 9% in 2010 (or 14% by PPP), making it the world’s second largest economy.

Since 2007, China’s economic growth has again steadily slowed down. More recently, its economy has been severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. At the same time, China faces fundamental challenges ranging from a rapidly aging population and the enormous risk accumulated in both the real estate and financial sectors to falling productivity growth and a worsening international environment. Against this background, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) held its 20th National Congress in October 2022 in which it set out a new roadmap for “China-style modernization” as announced by its top leader Xi Jinping.

In this talk, CEIBS Professor of Economics and Finance Xu Bin will examine China’s economy from a historical perspective and offer his views about its prospects for the future.

Outline:

China’s economy in the context of world history

Economic path of the People’s Republic of China

China’s “New Era” and “China-style modernization”

Future outlook of China’s economy