By Ho Kwong Kwan

Recent statistics from China’s Ministry of Civil Affairs revealed that the number of marriage registrations in China last year stood at 6.1 million couples, a 20.5% decrease from 7.68 million in 2023, highlighting ongoing shifts in marriage rates, social structures, cultural values, and economic outlook. In this article, CEIBS Associate Professor of Management Ho Kwong (Michael) Kwan shares his insights on this phenomenon.

Why have marriage rates in China plummeted to a record low?

Data from the Chinese Ministry of Civil Affairs shows that 6.1 million couples registered for marriage in 2024, marking a 20% drop from 2023, and a record low since 1980.

Why is this happening?

First and foremost, the high cost of marriage and child-rearing has discouraged young people from starting a family. I got married in 2014 - I’m from Hong Kong and my wife is from Shanghai. We started planning our wedding just a few months after we met. At that time, I had neither a car nor a house. Perhaps seeing me as a diamond in the rough, she never asked for a bride price, which is still common practice in China, and even let me move into her apartment.

The cost of getting married today, however, is much higher than it was for our generation. In first-tier Chinese cities, house price-to-income ratio often exceeds 20 times, meaning young people may take decades to save for a down payment. Beyond housing, bride prices and wedding expenses have also raised concerns among potential brides and grooms. A mid-size wedding ceremony, for example, including venue, decorations, and banquet, typically costs over RMB 100,000. Meanwhile, the cost of raising a child from birth to adulthood ranges between RMB 1-2 million in Shanghai. This heavy financial burden can be overwhelming for many young families.

In today’s complex and uncertain world, young people are deeply concerned about their financial future. Back in the days when I got married, job opportunities were plentiful and our salaries were growing by 5% annually, so we felt optimistic about what lay ahead. These days, however, worries about unemployment and income instability are making many people hesitant about marriage. Young professionals at startups, for example, often experience income fluctuations due to business restructuring or market pressures, making them hesitant to marry for fear of a decline in their quality of life. Because of this, stability has become a bigger priority when choosing a partner, with many expecting their partners to have a house, a car and a secure job before considering marriage. After all, if one loses their job, the spouse will have to bear the financial pressure to support the family. Things can get even tougher if there’s a child to support.

For many young professionals, China’s notorious “996” working culture (9 am to 9 pm, six days a week) has not only drained their energy but also narrowed their social circles, making it harder for them to meet potential partners. Some company employees work over 12 hours a day and frequently work overtime on weekends, leaving little time for social activities, let alone dating.

Moreover, constantly working overtime takes a toll on people’s health and affects their lives more generally, further reducing their appetite for marriage. I personally know one young man who often works late and worries about the effects on his health, to the extent that he is concerned that his lifestyle might affect the genetic health of his future children; thus, not to marry or have kids actually feels, to him, like a responsible decision for the next generation. Although this is anecdotal, I see no reason to believe that this is not one of the reasons that other young people are reluctant to get married.

Myriad other factors, of course, play a role, from the ubiquity of social media and video games lessening young people’s need for real-world connection to more general cultural shifts and advancements in reproductive technology.

Traditionally, people in China faced societal pressure to marry and have children once they reached a certain age. The fact that in 2020 the average age of first marriages was 28.67 years old, nearly four years later than that of in 2010 (24.89 years old), and that in large cities like Shanghai the average age at first marriage has now reached 30.1, shows that society has acknowledged—or at least passively accepted—the reality of delayed marriage and parenthood.

What, exactly, does this mean for China?

The implications of a declining marriage rate

Declining marriage rates have far-reaching implications, with the most immediate being falling birth rates. The National Bureau of Statistics’ population figures for 2023 suggest that births in China dropped to around 9 million, with a total fertility rate of about 1.0, the second lowest among major economies. Coupled with this downward-trending birthrate is a rapidly aging population; in 2023, those aged 60 or older made up 37.4% of Shanghai’s population.

The decline in marriages also poses a challenge to China’s pension security system. Fewer births will increase the burden on the working population to fund ever-growing pension payments. By 2050, over 30% of China’s population will be over the age of 60, further straining pension reserves. Regions dependent on government subsidies to cover their pension shortfalls will likely face mounting pressure over the coming decades.

In addition, the surge in the elderly population is set to exacerbate an already pronounced shortage of care homes. As marriages plummet, the number of seniors living alone will increase, driving demand for elderly care. However, China’s existing facilities fall far short of meeting this growing demand. According to the Ministry of Civil Affairs, China faced a shortage of over five million care home beds in 2023, leaving many elderly people without adequate care. In some cities, beds in top-tier elderly care institutions often have long waiting lists, making it difficult for seniors to secure a spot.

For those who don’t marry, elder care can be a major challenge as they age. Without family support, living alone may lead to problems such as lack of care when sick, loneliness, and difficulty with daily living tasks.

Marriage, on the other hand, offers a range of benefits. Research shows that married people tend to have higher life and job satisfaction, as well as longer lifespans than their unmarried counterparts. Marriage also fosters personal growth, improves communication skills, and helps individuals navigate diverse social relationships. Parenthood, meanwhile, enhances observation and communication skills as parents learn to understand and meet their children’s needs.

In terms of career, married people also often achieve greater career success than single people. This is partly because family responsibilities foster maturity and stability at work. Married employees with children are also less likely to be laid off and more likely to receive promotion opportunities and pay increases.

A multi-pronged approach to increasing marriage rates

Many developed Asian countries have adopted a multi-pronged approach to boosting marriage rates. South Korea offers cash subsidies, housing support, tax incentives, and free marriage counselling; Japan organises matchmaking events; and Singapore funds blind-date events and social networking sites. These measures can provide a useful reference for China.

In Hong Kong, where population growth stands at an average annual rate of 0.8%, new parents can receive a one-off HK$20,000 subsidy for each child, plus a monthly education allowance of several thousand Hong Kong dollars. While most Hong Kong residents live in subsidized housing with long waiting lists, married couples can move up the queue.

Ultimately, increasing marriage rates requires support from all sectors of society.

Various media outlets and educational platforms can be leveraged to promote the significance of family and marriage, and help young people develop healthy attitudes towards love and married life. In practice, marriage workshops and family-themed advertisements, films, and television dramas can contribute to creating a society that values family and marriage. Some television networks and film studios have produced shows that vividly depict the warmth of family and the responsibilities of marriage, winning wide acclaim from audiences. The Chinese animated Ne Zha film series, for example, repeatedly portrays parental love and tolerance for children.

In terms of enterprises, companies should comply with labour laws, particularly in protecting employees’ right to rest, and eliminate the “996” work schedule. Specifically, they can offer flexible working options and paid leave to give employees more time to enjoy life, balance work and family, and build romantic relationships and social connections. Companies may also consider offering high-quality, convenient community healthcare and nursing services (both online and offline), developing smart user-friendly products for elderly care (e.g., household robots), and creating reliable financial products for the elders.

The role of policy is also vital. Government should increase subsidies for marriage and childbirth by reducing taxes and offering housing allowances, and maternity subsidies to alleviate the economic burden on young couples. Some cities have notably introduced house purchase subsidies to newlyweds, giving eligible couples a certain amount of housing subsidies.

Efforts should also be made to reduce the cost of parenthood while improving the public service system, such as by establishing affordable childcare centres and offering free healthcare and education for children; some communities in the country have already begun to do so. This year’s Two Sessions, China’s closely watched annual, agenda-setting government meeting, also emphasised policies to encourage childbirth, including providing childcare subsidies, developing integrated nursery and childcare services, and expanding affordable childcare offerings.

Greater efforts should also be made to protect the rights and interests of women seeking divorce. Property division should follow the principle of fairness, taking into full account women's efforts and contributions during marriage to ensure their legitimate rights and interests are not infringed upon. In divorce cases, the courts should comprehensively consider both spouses’ financial status and family contributions to ensure a reasonable division of assets. Equally important are efforts to mitigate the effects of falling marriage rates that are already with us, for example by providing free psychological counselling. Communities should set up more psychological counselling centres to help unmarried individuals seniors living alone navigate loneliness and mental stress.

China’s decline in marriage rates is the result of a complex network of factors, with profound social implications. Addressing this challenge requires a collective effort on behalf of all of society to restore marriage as a desirable life choice. Only then can we sustain social development and help people find happiness and a sense of belonging in marriage and family life.

Michael Kwan is an Associate Professor of Management at CEIBS. His research interests mainly concentrate on work-family interfaces, mentoring, leadership, and deviant behaviour.