Faculty & Research
Knowledge creation on China, from proven China experts.
Faculty & Research
Knowledge creation on China, from proven China experts.
Two projects on Trump-Economics
Abstract:
Title 1: The Consumption Response to Protectionism
Abstract 1: Despite policy aims to support income and employment, we show that U.S. households in counties more exposed to protective tariffs spend less over time. Spending declines coincide with falling wages and persist after accounting for exposure to pass-through and retaliatory tariffs. Reductions in both quantities and prices point to a demand-driven contraction. Effects are stronger when tariffs target capital rather than consumption goods, and are concentrated among working-class Americans, who subsequently cut discretionary spending. We underscore the vertical integration of U.S. and Chinese firms within tariff-targeted industries. Protectionism does not benefit domestic labor market and may risk local household welfare.
Title 2: The Political Consequences of Subjective Inflation Expectations
Abstract 2: Details to be shared during the seminar.
Abstract 1: Despite policy aims to support income and employment, we show that U.S. households in counties more exposed to protective tariffs spend less over time. Spending declines coincide with falling wages and persist after accounting for exposure to pass-through and retaliatory tariffs. Reductions in both quantities and prices point to a demand-driven contraction. Effects are stronger when tariffs target capital rather than consumption goods, and are concentrated among working-class Americans, who subsequently cut discretionary spending. We underscore the vertical integration of U.S. and Chinese firms within tariff-targeted industries. Protectionism does not benefit domestic labor market and may risk local household welfare.
Title 2: The Political Consequences of Subjective Inflation Expectations
Abstract 2: Details to be shared during the seminar.
Contact Emails:
zlynne@ceibs.edu
