How confident should we be about defeating the coronavirus epidemic?

By Zhang Yimin
At present, 31 provinces (including autonomous regions and municipalities) in China have launched first-level responses to this major public health emergency and implemented the most stringent prevention and control measures ever. It can be said that we are fighting the epidemic with our national strength, which essentially boosts everyone’s confidence in defeating the pandemic. China’s “national strength” can be understood at three levels: scientific/technological, industrial, and people.
First, let’s look at scientific and technological strength. After the epidemic outbreak, a number of Chinese experts from several disciplines confirmed the pathogen of the disease in a swift manner through consultation and investigation, and published the genome sequence data of the virus, which serves as the first-hand reference to study and analyse the evolutionary source of the virus and the pathogenesis of the disease. At the same time, relevant national research institutes have rapidly developed viral nucleic acid detection kits based on the genome sequence data of the virus, thus improving accurate detection of patients in terms of infection type. Numerous research results have allowed us to have a clearer understanding of the characteristics of virus, thus helping us overcome panic caused by insufficient knowledge of the epidemic, and fight the virus in a rational fashion.
Next, let’s look at industrial strength level, which can be further divided into two sublevels: namely construction and production levels. At the industrial construction level, the construction of Huoshenshan and Leishenshan Hospitals in Wuhan progressed rapidly. Going forwards, patients will be isolated for treatment at either of the two facilities so as to prevent the spread of the epidemic. At the industrial production level, taking the production of the Covid-19 viral nucleic acid detection kits and disposable masks as examples, major pharmaceutical companies immediately increased R&D efforts and started mass production of test agents after receiving the detection kits developed by relevant national scientific research institutes, and thus large numbers of these kits can be made available in the market within a short time. After confirmation that Covid-19 could be transmitted from person to person, the demand for masks from the public has increased sharply, resulting in short supply. However, the production of masks increased rapidly after manufacturers were mobilised.
At people level, in responding to the sudden outbreak of Covid-19, the public in China has reacted remarkably well, demonstrating a strong capacity for mobilisation. At the same time, medical staff are fearlessly working on the frontline fighting the epidemic. Except for frontline medical workers, people across China have voluntarily stayed at home for self-imposed quarantine, thereby helping to greatly reduce the chance of spreading the virus, and fully demonstrating strong mobilisation capabilities when facing a major crisis.
In summary, today’s China boasts advanced technology, sufficient supplies and social cohesion. I believe we can win the public health protection battle in the next two to three months at a much smaller cost than that of SARS in 2003.
Zhang Yimin is a Professor Emeritus at CEIBS. For more on his teaching and research interests, please visit his CEIBS faculty profile here.