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Thursday, April 16, 2020

芮博澜:各国团结是战胜疫情唯一途径

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G20(二十国集团)主要经济体领导人日前召开了史上首次视频会议。他们在会上表示,各国可以共同采取特殊措施应对新冠肺炎疫情。会议期间,各国政治家和他们的助手在各自首都的会议室里围坐在屏幕前。当他们以这样一种奇特的方式交流时,肯定有很多东西要思考。这种非常规的沟通方式能否成为陷入停滞的全球化重返正轨的跳板?
 
2018年以来,全球化持续呈现衰退趋势。全球货物贸易量的变化清楚地表明了这一点:2018年,全球货物贸易量仅增长了0.6%,2019年增幅更低,只有0.3%。经济学家和各国智囊团将原因归结为:美国与主要贸易伙伴(包括中国)之间的贸易摩擦,全球经济增长势头大幅放缓,全球局势的不确定性增加。2019年最后一季度,中美两国就贸易摩擦达成了第一阶段协议。但是,这一积极态势并没有维持多久。
 
没有人能预料到,在这之后不久,一个小小的病毒会给全球经济环境带来毁灭性打击。在全球目光的注视下,面对迅速增长的确诊病例和死亡病例,中国采取了封城措施,全速启动了卫生医疗系统(包括几天之内建成多家医院)。其他国家很少有人意识到,同样的剧情会在短短两个月之后在自己的国家上演。目前,各国已陆续采取封城和边境关闭措施。一些酒店、展览中心、体育场被改建成临时医疗设施。随着各国采取封闭措施,全球生产活动逐渐陷入停滞。
 
全球性的经济衰退即将到来,或许已经到来。有“世界工厂”之称的中国最先发现疫情,现已步入复苏阶段。这对世界而言或许是个好消息,因为各国目前急需口罩、个人防护装备、呼吸机等重要物资,中国是唯一有能力满足这些需求的经济体。但是,当前的经济危机涉及供需两个方面。尽管中国的供应链正在恢复正常,但世界其他地区的需求,尤其是对非必需品的需求仍无法摆脱疲软的现状。供需两侧都恢复正常尚需时日。某些经济学家在一个月之前预测,世界经济将呈现V字型的复苏曲线。这一预测显得过于乐观。
 
经济学家普遍认为,全球化已经惠及大部分国家,甚至所有国家,逆全球化将对经济增长产生负面影响。工业化国家从全球化进程中获益更多,因为按绝对值计算,1990~2016年,发展中国家和发达国家之间的收入差距有所扩大。全球化的批评者(尤其是西方工业化国家的政治人士)则认为,世界各国并没有公平地享受到全球化所带来的红利。但是,这并不应该归咎于全球化,而应归咎于相关国家的收入分配和税收政策。
 
可是事实上,只有促进全球化才能让世界渡过当前的至暗时刻。全球各国目前面临的很多亟待解决的问题(例如气候变化、新冠肺炎疫情)需要全球性的解决方案来应对,只靠本国的力量应对这些问题终将以失败收场,最多只能推迟这些问题所产生的影响。各国必须齐心协力,共同研究出最有效的应对方案。全球各地的科学家们必须分享自己的观点和资源,通过寻找疫苗和药物来对抗新冠病毒这一看不见的敌人。各国的疾控中心和制药公司必须竞相寻找治疗方法,不要一心只想着专利权,而是要争取“吹牛权”(bragging rights)。
 
在经济领域,国际货币基金组织(IMF)号召全球各国以协调、同步的方式采取财政刺激一揽子计划。该计划和2008~2009年金融危机期间采取的措施相似,但规模数倍于后者。以往有很多这样的例子:在面临各种各样的危机时,随着国际社会协调采取措施,民众将重建信心,经济将恢复增长。因此,如果各国政府同步采取投资计划,一国的开支可能成为另一国的资金来源。没有哪个国家有能力单独解决本国的经济问题。或许,我们应该把整个世界看成一个国家,把人类看成这个国家的公民。
 
为此,各国必须展现全球领导力。国际社会近年来存在领导力真空。民族主义和民粹主义被用作攫取权力、自我扩张的工具。思想狭隘的领导人将愈发不受尊重。其他领导人(包括发展中国家领导人和小国领导人)必须力争填补这种真空。一国领导人肯定把本国利益放在首位,但是,以邻为壑的政策从来都是损人不利己的。全球各国团结起来对抗共同的敌人似乎是战胜疫情的唯一途径。而且,这能让各国更深刻地感受到团结的力量。此次疫情可能是大自然给人类的一个重大教训。和新冠病毒一样,全球化也是一种自然现象。它不会受到边界、种族、宗教和财富的影响。因此,我们需要消除这些方面的障碍,让相互依存发挥它的力量。世界的未来有赖于此。
 
作者系中欧国际工商学院(CEIBS)副教务长、经济学教授芮博澜
 
第一财经报道详情:
https://www.yicai.com/news/100595604.html
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