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Friday, February 07, 2020

芮萌:数字经济在疫情中的对冲和稳定器作用

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这场疫情自去年12月底武汉出现首例感染病例以来,已经导致逾500人丧生。为防止疫情进一步扩散,全国各级政府陆续要求推迟节后复工日期。节后延迟复工将对企业经营造成一定影响,尤其会对现金流较为紧张的中小企业产生显著影响,而经营压力将进一步传导至劳动力市场。这次疫情将会对居民消费、务工人员返程、企业复工生产、企业订单/现金流、外贸和旅游业、用工就业等多方面产生负向冲击。中央和地方正积极制定针对性的政策。央行、财政部等多部门明确加强对小微企业、民营企业等重点领域信贷支持以及对部分企业贷款进行贴息支持。同时,江苏、上海、北京、广东、山东等地陆续推出一系列中小企业减负措施,涉及缓缴社会保险和部分税款、减免房租、贷款适当展期等诸多方面。央行的货币政策调控节奏大概率会前置,近期央行可能会通过降息、降准、增加OMO频率等方式增加市场流动性。除了政府的措施,我们需要全社会一起行动起来,共同抗疫。

这次疫情让我们看到数字经济的对冲作用。中国已经进入互联网商业时代,消费者越来越多地选择网上购物。2019 年,全国网上零售额 10.63万亿元,比上年增长 16.5% 。其中,实物商品网上零售额 8.5万亿元,增长19.5%,占社会消费品零售总额的比重为 20.7% 。由于疫情消费者普遍减少外出,网上消费兴起,京东数据表示网上消费增速快速上行,腾讯数据表示其手游游戏增速大幅上行。只要快递等物流服务恢复正常,这次疫情造成的线下销售下降 ,绝大部分可能会被网购的增加抵消 。

另外这次疫情也会对2020年的就业与居民收入情况造成显著压力,预计今年上半年全国城镇调查失业率估计上行至5.3%左右,高于2019年平均调查失业率水平(5.15%),对5.5%的控制线构成显著压力。这次疫情的中心湖北是中国六个中部省份之一,这些省份向全国其他地区输出了三分之一的外出务工人员,而现在他们中的很多人都无法出行。前央行顾问黄益平教授预计如果5%的中国服务行业员工失业,将意味着2,000万人失去工作。政府部门已经意识到当前就业形势的潜在压力,1月26日人社部发布通知要求“妥善处理好疫情防控期间劳动关系问题,维护职工合法权益,保障企业正常生产经营秩序,促进劳动关系和谐稳定”。另外2019年12月4日,国常会提出大力鼓励灵活就业,支持农民工返乡创业,农村从一定程度上仍可发挥“就业蓄水池”作用,有助于缓解城镇就业困难问题。2月3日一则关于云海肴、青年餐厅(北京)近500名赋闲中的员工入驻盒马各地门店,担任盒马配送员的消息让我们看到平台经济在就业方面所起到的稳定器作用。另外2月初,因为疫情影响平台咨询量暴增,阿里巴巴对外开放云客服岗位招募,有一台电脑、会打字,简单培训后就能上岗,一晚上就有5000多名网友报名。在这次疫情中,让我们看到数字经济刺激了零工经济繁荣,增加了就业的弹性空间,丰富了就业市场的毛细血管,发挥“就业蓄水池”作用。这背后反映的是随着移动互联网和移动支付的全面渗透,个人可以发挥比公司更强的低成本优势。

这次疫情发生之后,全国教育培训机构停止线下教学,同时教育部宣布2020 年春季开学延期,并提倡“停课不停学”,鼓励学校和培训机构将教育教学转移至线上场景。国内一些科技巨头、教育公司和企业服务公司,也针对教育行业提出了或免费或减免的支援方案。由于疫情导致的复工推迟使得多家公司采取远程办公的方式,政府可以在线沟通、学校可以远程授课、医院可以线上诊疗、企业可以在线商讨。这让我们看到新技术可以优化企业管理与提高公司生产效率,远程办公将是未来公司办公模式发展的大趋势。

这次疫情让我们看到数字经济的对冲和稳定器作用,让我们发挥企业机制、社会机制和政府机制的各自优势,让我们为爱一起战,一定会冬去春来。

作者:芮萌,中欧国际工商学院教授

第一财经报道详情:
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/RUFvCFLeDVj4xqbrvhoN0Q

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