Wednesday, November 9, 2016

Trump Won, Now What?

“What impact would having Donald Trump in the White House have on China-US trade? The US President Elect seems to want to renegotiate various agreements the US has with trading partners. This likely will scupper the TPP agreement, and might even affect NAFTA, which connects the US with Mexico and Canada. Since those deals exclude China, this might actually be good for China because it gets on a more equal footing with direct competitors in Mexico or in South East Asia.

On the other hand, Trump wants to save or recreate blue-collar workplaces in the US. He might therefore, for example, launch anti-dumping investigations against steel and other produce; he might object to China being granted ‘market economy status’ in the WTO; or he might come up with other creative ways to hinder imports – even in violation of WTO rules. Also, a weaker dollar may reduce competitiveness of Chinese products.

Thus, overall, it is probably bad news for Chinese exporters to the US.

Look for the business side of environmental protection/sustainability to be affected as well. Donald Trump does not seem to believe in climate change, and various other concerns of the environmental lobby.  This is bad news for anyone exporting products for green energy from China to USA, such as wind turbines or solar panels. It is also bad news for those who are investing in electrical vehicles with a view of eventually selling them in the USA. On the other hand, shares of traditional energy companies and coal mines might go up, at least in the short run.”

~ Klaus Meyer, CEIBS Professor of Strategy and International Business

“For Chinese executives and entrepreneurs, Trump is definitely more of an unknown figure. So the level of uncertainty that comes with his win is definitely higher. At this stage, it is still not clear what impact his win will have on businesses and the economy – on trade, foreign exchange rates, etc. – for the US, China and the rest of the world.

In China, as I suspect is the case in many places around the world, I believe there will be a "wait and see" approach to see whether Trump will carry out some of the more controversial promises he made while campaigning.

I believe the Chinese business community is resilient and adaptable enough to prepare for what will happen after Trump is in the White House - some of them might already have had contingency plans for both outcomes of the US election.”

~ Zhang Yu, Assistant Professor of Management

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