EVENTSLujiazui Forum 2009
Finance and Economic Growth in the Globalized Age
May 15 -16, 2009 Pudong Shangri-La Hotel, Shanghai, China
Forum Co-Hosts:
Shanghai Municipal People’s Government
The People’s Bank of China
China Banking Regulatory Commission
China Securities Regulatory Commission
China Insurance Regulatory Commission
Forum Co-Chairmen:
LIU Mingkang, Chairman, China Banking Regulatory Commission
HAN Zheng, Mayor of Shanghai
Update by May 20, 2009
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Friday, May 15 | |
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07:30 - 08:30 |
Registration |
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09:00 - 09:10 |
Opening |
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09:10 - 09:40 |
Opening Keynote Speech |
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09:40 - 09:45 |
Break |
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09:45 - 10:45 |
Plenary Session I: China’s Economic and Financial Situation and Policies Has China’s growth rate bottomed in Q1 2009? How will growth unfold in China amid continued global recessions? Can China return to the days of double digit growth rates? While China’s financial system has withstood the global financial tsunami, does China have a proper financial sector that can continue to power its rapid growth in the absence of fast export growth? In a drastically changed world, what will be the strategies and roadmaps for financial sector reform in China? Can monetary policy continue to play a major role in sustaining growth in 2009? What are the policy priorities for the banking, securities and insurance sectors in 2009? Chair: Keynote Speeches: |
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10:45 - 11:00 |
Coffee Break |
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11:00 - 12:30 |
Plenary Session I: China’s Economic and Financial Situation and Policy (Continued) Chair: Keynote Speeches: |
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12:30 - 14:00 |
Luncheon |
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14:00 - 15:30 |
Plenary Session II: Prospects of China’s Financial Markets During the first three months of 2009, in the midst of a severe worldwide recession, China’s bank lending surged, non-performing loan ratio dropped, and stock market turned in the best performance among major world bourses. Can this nirvana continue or will some pitfalls lie ahead? Clearly, an international downturn presents a good opportunity for China to improve its market infrastructures and upgrade regulation. How do China’s financial industry leaders learn lessons from the global financial crisis? Shall China slow down financial innovation and market opening? While domestic market remains very profitable for most large Chinese financial firms, when should they have a substantive international strategy? Many people credit China’s tight regulation for avoiding the financial calamity that some other countries suffered during this crisis, what suggestions China’s industry leaders may have regarding regulatory reform? Chair: Panelists: |
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15:30 - 15:50 |
Coffee Break |
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15:50 - 17:30 |
Plenary Session III: Global Economic and Financial Markets Prospects The World Bank and IMF all predict that 2009 will see massive global recessions. Yet, major world financial markets seem to have stabilized and even recovered a little bit. Is this a false calm before another storm hits or does it show that the groundwork has already been laid for economic recovery in 2010? Many international financial firms were badly damaged by the crisis, how long will it take for them to repair themselves and return to a shape that can fuel economic growth again? How will their emerging market strategies change as a result of the crisis? Will there be more resources committed to emerging markets or less? Global problems need a global solution, so do academics and politicians alike say. But how do international financial industry leaders feel about global rules and global regulators? How can a global regulator be made effective and helpful? Chair: Panelists: |
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18:00 - 18:30 |
Cocktail |
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18:30 - 20:00 |
Welcome Dinner Hosted by Forum Co-Chairmen: Welcome Speech: |
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Huangpu River Soirees | |
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20:30 - 22:00 |
Night Chat by the Huangpu I: Alternative Investments after the Crisis Alternative investments, defined as PE, VC, hedge funds, etc., were as badly impacted by the financial crisis as those “regular investments”. Some investors are selling their alternative investment at a fraction of its original value. Others are finding it difficult to meet new capital calls. New fund raising worldwide for alternative investments has fallen off a cliff. Are alternative investments simply a bubble that has permanently burst along with the other bubbles in the crisis, or will there be important roles for them to play in the economic recovery going forward? How will the landscape of international alternative investment change after the crisis? In China, cities like Shanghai, Beijing, Tianjin and Shenzhen are just mounting massive efforts to foster and attract PE and VC firms. Are they simply coming in late in a game that is already ending or do they see something in alternative investment that is critical valuable to the Chinese economy? If China is determined to grow its own PE and VC industry, what are the most important lessons that China can learn from international experiences? What are the most urgent policies that China should adopt? Chair: Panelists: |
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20:30 - 22:00 |
Night Chat by the Huangpu II: Win-Win Financial Cooperation between Shanghai and Taiwan Since Shanghai is the financial center of the Mainland, financial cooperation between Shanghai and Taiwan is really about cooperation between the Mainland and Taiwan. Shanghai has always been at the forefront of developing financial relations with Taiwan. The first majority Taiwanese investor owned bank was set up in Shanghai more than 10 years ago and the first Taiwanese JV life insurance company also chose Shanghai to be its home. Yet, both sides want more cooperation. Given the newly started direct flights, financial cooperation holds enormous promises for both sides. When can the much anticipated regulatory MOU between Taiwan and the Mainland be signed? In terms of innovation and transaction mechanism, Taiwan’s financial sector is ahead of Mainland’s. What are the areas that the Mainland can learn from Taiwan? What are the areas that Taiwan can open up to Mainland institutions? How can Shanghai continue to play the leading role in cross-channel financial cooperation? Chair: Panelists: |
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20:30 - 22:00 |
Night Chat by the Huangpu III: Development of Gold and Commodity Markets in the Global Economic Crisis Gold and commodity prices are closely related to economy cycles. So far during the financial crisis, gold has proven to be a safe haven. Will it continue to be so? With major central banks pumping massive liquidity into the system, are commodity prices about to explode again? How will China affect the global gold and commodities demand and supply equations? Should China invest a substantial portion of its FX reserves into gold and commodities? Shanghai is home to China’s gold and major commodities markets, how can Shanghai better utilize this to advance its goal of becoming a leading international financial center? Chair: Panelists: |
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Saturday, May 16 | |
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09:00 - 10:30 |
Plenary Session IV: Shanghai International Financial Center: Opportunities and Challenges in the New International Financial Order The financial crisis offers a range of unprecedented opportunities for Shanghai as an international financial center. What are these? How can Shanghai seize them? One of the opportunities is clearly the nascent use of RMB in cross-border trade. How does this increasing trend of RMB internationalization affect Shanghai’s strategy of becoming an IFC? The Lujiazui Forum was created partly to advance Shanghai as a leading IFC. This year’s annual meeting is very opportune: The State Council recently decided to pass an important document outlining the goal, the strategy and the organizational mechanism of building Shanghai into an IFC. In the Chinese context, such a document is tantamount to a piece of national legislation. With the passage of this document, the Shanghai IFC drive is officially a national strategy and effort. How can Shanghai better seize this opportunity? Since Shanghai is also one of the most important ports of the world, how can Shanghai make a big stride forward in building itself into a world center of shipping-related financial services? In this regard, what can Shanghai learn from London? Chair: Panelists: |
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10:30 - 10:50 |
Coffee Break |
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Concurrent Panel Discussions | |
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10:50 - 12:30 |
Panel I: Roles of Financial Markets in Technological Innovation and the Development of SMEs It is fair to say that China has grown rapidly in the past largely due to fast and sustained export growth. Now this favorable external condition has gone and perhaps gone for ever. In order to resume rapid economic growth, China needs tens of millions of vibrant innovation companies and SMEs to create income and provide the appropriate supplies for a domestic demand led economy. While China’s financial sector has been very effective in funding the large SOEs, it isn’t adequately equipped to serve innovation companies and SMEs. Whether China’s financial sector can successfully make that transition largely determines if China can shift to a more domestic demand led growth model and thus attain rapid growth in the next decades. What then are the needed financial reforms? How can the banking sector be made more effective in serve innovation companies and SMEs? How much can be expected from the soon-to-be launched growth company board in the stock market? What are the wish lists of the industry leaders? Chair: Panelists: |
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10:50 - 12:30 |
Panel II: Industrial Revitalization and Financial Services Reacting to the economic slowdown, China launched revitalization plans for 10 key industries such as textile, steel and cars, in which large SOEs play a leading role. In additional, several provincial governments have identified clean energy, pharmaceuticals, etc. as their next key industries. How can the financial sector contribute to the revitalization and growth of these industries in a way that is financially sound? What do industrial leaders want from financial firms? How much impact will the newly launched M&A loan have on industrial revitalization? What can the stock market do to help? How can insurance companies play a part? Chair: Panelists: |
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10:50 - 12:30 |
Panel III: The US and Chinese Economies and the Global Economic Recovery The US and China are currently the largest and third largest economies in the world. But they are the two largest in terms of marginal contribution to the world economy. How these two economies perform largely determine when the world will recover from current recessions. While US financial markets have mostly stabilized, when will the US economy stop sliding and start growing? China never stopped growing, but its growth rate in the last two quarters slowed to a level not seen in the last decade. Can China achieve a targeted 8% growth rate in 2009? How can the US and China continue to forge a mutually beneficial economic relation that in particular would aid in the resumption of growth in the US and the restoration of fast growth in China? Chair: Panelists: |
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12:30 - 14:00 |
Luncheon |
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14:00 - 15:30 |
Panel IV: Financial Regulation: New thinking After the Crisis Inadequate regulation has been squarely blamed for the financial crisis. But were there any deeper reasons? In the light of the crisis, how can we strike the right balance between regulation and financial innovation? How can we avoid the rush-to-regulation that typically occurs after a crisis? In a globalized world, cross-border regulatory coordination is obviously needed. But how to achieve that coordination? China’s financial sector has largely stood the test of the financial crisis. So what are the right measures that China took in the past that are responsible for the current resilience? And what are the new tasks that lie ahead in China’s regulatory reform? China still pretty much sticks to Glass-Steagal. Shall China completely remove the wall separating investment and commercial banking? Chair: Panelists: |
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14:00 - 15:30 |
Panel V: The Evolving New International Monetary System and the Role of RMB The impact of the financial crisis on the incumbent international monetary system is apparent. Both to prevent future financial crisis and to accommodate the interests of emerging economic powers, it is essential to reform the Bretton Woods System. Governor Zhou Xiaochuan has proposed a supra-sovereignty reserve currency and the steps to achieve that goal. How likely will his ideas be realized? Will an international monetary system with four or five major national currencies competing with each other be a better system than this supra-sovereignty solution? What ought to be the future proper roles of the IMF? The Renminbi is beginning to be used in international trade as an invoice and payment currency. What’s the prospect of RMB as an international currency? In this regard, what can China learn from the lessons of Japan and the EU? Chair: Panelists: |
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14:00 - 15:30 |
Panel VI: New Opportunities in China’s Capital Markets When China’s economy was fueled by exports, much of the financial services could be outsourced: FDI and foreign PE & VC were the examples. Now that China’s growth is much more domestic demand oriented, the importance and responsibility of capital markets have greatly increased. Expectations are high. The growth company board was already formally announced not long ago. But when will it actually start? How can we make it a real engine driving the growth of tens of thousands of innovative companies? When will IPO in the main board be restarted? What are the much anticipated changes in the IPO regulatory process? After more than two years of preparations, is the stock index futures product finally on the verge of launching? What changes will a functioning financial futures market bringing to cash markets? Are there any unforeseen risks? Several new products were launched recently in the commodity futures market, including two important steel products. How can the commodity futures market play a bigger role in China’s growth? In order to become an international financial center, Shanghai has to open up its financial markets much more. What are the appropriate opening-up measures in capital markets right now? Chair: Panelists: |
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15:30 - 16:00 |
Coffee Break |
| 16:00 - 17:30 Beijing, Level 2, River Wing |
Panel VII: Finance and the Development of China’s Consumer Markets Consumption only makes up 35% of Chinese GDP and has been identified as the desired source of domestic demand that can drive sustainable growth in China. Are there any significant barriers to consumption that arise from the financial sector? If so, what need to be done to boost Chinese consumption? Car purchase has held up exceedingly well so far this year. Are there things that financial firms can do to make car consumption a sustained source of domestic demand? Housing is perhaps always the largest component of consumption in a fast growing economy. What are the most needed financial products that can bring affordable housing to hundreds of millions of Chinese families? The housing rental market in China is still very small. What can financial firms do to grow this market? Chair: Panelists: |
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16:00 - 17:30 |
Panel VIII: Shape of the Financial Services Industry After the Crisis This financial crisis has the power of radically changing the financial services industry. The independent investment banks have all but disappeared, as witnessed by the transformation of Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs into bank holding companies. On the other hand, most big commercial banks’ forays into investment banking have largely failed. The experiment with financial conglomerate, as typified by Citigroup, proved disastrous. “Too big to fail” is widely and rightly blamed for a lot of irresponsible behaviors in a lot of firms. Compensation practices clearly contributed to the excessive risk taking. The rating industry also shares the blame. Can we already see the rough contour of the shape of the financial industry after the crisis? While China is at a quite different stage of financial development from the crisis countries, what can China learn from the crisis to move its own financial reform forward? Chair: Panelists: |
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19:30 - 21:30 |
Closing Concert by the Pittsburgh Symphony Orchestra |